Weak Signals - Theoretical Foundations [SAF-WS-INTRO]

Only finding and counting human errors, failures or breakdowns is not an appropriate way to gain better insight of how today's systems work and possibly fail. This transition calls for extending reactive management strategies based on hindsight towards proactive ones, able to create foresight and to anticipate future threats. A better understanding of the interactions and couplings among system components is necessary. Nonetheless, only little information is being taken to analyse everyday scenarios that happen all the time. There are situations where the variability of daily performance exceeds a normal range and therefore becomes a strong signal, visible to everyone. On the other hand, processes are characterized by a large number of weak signals, which can be seen as seemingly random or disconnected pieces of information that at first appear to be background noise but can be recognized as part of a significant pattern by viewing them through a different frame or connecting it with other pieces of information. The course provides an overview of the fundamentals of systems theory and knowledge management for weak signals and introduces a practical method to unearth them in modern socio-technical systems, i.e., SECA (Structured Exploration of Complex Adaptations).